Europe's legal cannabis market will be worth 115 billion euros within 10 years

Europe will be the world's biggest cannabis market, but not just yet. At least, that's what the think-tank Prohibition Partners asserts in its third annual report on cannabis in Europe, a 156-page document describing and analyzing the plant's situation in Europe.

Huge market potential

According to calculations by Prohibition Partners, the illegal cannabis market in Europe is currently worth almost 30 billion euros, with 12% of the population consuming it.

The report sets out staggering figures for a possible legal cannabis market. If legalized both medically and recreationally throughout Europe, cannabis could generate sales of 115 billion euros by 2028.

If the cannabis is completely legal throughout Europe within ten years, which Prohibition Partners considers likely, the recreational market alone could generate 38 billion euros from the primary market (i.e. the number of consumers multiplied by the quantity consumed, the price of the product and market expansion) and 22.3 billion from the secondary market (product processing industry, laboratories, security, etc.).

A disabling delay

IF the potential figures are tempting, they are not within reach. Current European legislation, as well as the entirety of countries' local laws in addition to international treaties, prohibit the trade in non-medical cannabis with a significant rate of THC. In some places, such as Spain and Holland, the law or its application allow certain forms of access to cannabis, in more or less legal and confusing ways. The revenues generated are already substantial, attracting many entrepreneurs and investors who stretch the law to the limit to develop a profitable business around cannabis.

Numerous associations are also campaigning for a relaxation of the law on cannabis, some solely for medical reasons, others for principles of individual freedom, and still others exclusively for economic reasons. Accompanied by entrepreneurs, lobbyists and lawyers, they are successfully trying to bring about change. The report explains that revenues from the legal cannabis market in Europe have been higher over the last 6 months than over the previous 6 years, a harbinger of imminent change.

The 115 billion in revenue will therefore have to wait for a generalized change in European law or in each European country with regard to cannabis, both medical and recreational, which Prohibition Partners expects to happen within the next 10 years, although it points out that there can be no certainty on this subject given the instability of the situation.