Polls: Cannabis legalization gains consensus in the U.S., less so in Europe

While the Canada legalized cannabis for adult use last week, In the United States, eyes are now turning to potential countries that could follow suit. In the United States, after 30 states have legalized the medical use of cannabis and 10 the recreational one, the majority of the population seems to be in favor of federal legalization. In Europe, the situation is a little less clear-cut.

The American consensus

A recent Gallup poll conducted in early October shows that American support for legalization has peaked, with 64 % of the population now in favor (margin of error is 4%). In September, the Pew Research Center had also led to a survey which showed a favorable opinion of legalization from 62 % of the population, 1 % more than their poll the previous year and double that of 2000. Gallup's database shows that the trend reversed in 2013.

Pro-legalization positions first appeared among Democrats, then among Independents, where they became the majority between 2009 and 2010. It's only since this year that this trend has become the majority among Republicans, quite suddenly in fact, since 9% more of them are pro-legalization than last year.

Despite the blocking of certain Republican political figures such as the Attorney General Jeff Sessions and House Rules Committee Chairman Pete Sessions, there now seems to be a consensus in favor of liberalizing cannabis policies. Bipartisan initiatives on the subject have already seen the light of day. The next legislative elections will be decisive on this issue. One Democratic MP has already prepared an action plan to end federal prohibition as early as next year, should the Democrats regain power in the House of Representatives. He said he was worried that the Republicans would take up the issue if the Democrats failed to act.

Back home

According to UN report on drugs, cannabis was the most widely used drug in 2016, with some 192 million consumers (having used at least once in the year), and this figure continues to rise (+16 % already by the end of 2016). However, this high level of consumption is not indicative of general support or sympathy for legalization in political circles. The position of political parties on the issue is more relevant for assessing potential political change.

In France, a survey shows that only a very narrow majority of 51% are in favor of regulating cannabis. 40 % are against and 9 % have no opinion. As long as the pressure of public opinion and certain lobbies is not strong enough, the government will have no reason to embark on such a controversial policy. Nevertheless, 82 % are in favor of legalizing medical cannabis and the issue is currently under discussion at ANSM, a government body of the Ministry of Health

In Spain, a recent survey shows that support for legalization is largely polarized between right and left. The Spanish average is 68 % in favor and 32 % against. The «morada» formation Podemos and EQUO, an ecologist party, supports legalization to the tune of 92 %. Recently the Podemos organized a conference with a view to introducing a bill to regulate cannabis.

In the United Kingdom, according to a survey from last May, The population is divided with 43 % in favor, 41 % against and 15 % undecided. However, defenders of the status quo represent only 40 %, with 51 % of the population in favor of liberalizing cannabis policies, whether legalization or decriminalization. The poll estimated public support for medical cannabis at 75 %. In the meantime, the United Kingdom has legalized medical cannabis in the face of pressure from civil society.

Regarding Germany, two 2017 polls show contradictory results. A Forsa survey shows that 63 % of Germans are against the idea. On the other hand another Mafo Market survey estimates the proportion of Germans in favor of legalization at 57.5 %. The two surveys were conducted just one month apart and questioned the same number of people (1000). Survey results are not to be taken literally, since they depend largely on the methods used, as well as the social status and political orientation of the individuals sampled. The Forsa survey shows that voters in the ruling coalition are 72% % opposed to legalization.