The next American legislative elections: any hope of legalization?

The midterm elections are of the utmost importance in the United States. Held every four years, they determine the political direction of the U.S. Congress, made up of the House of Representatives and the Senate.

A Democratic victory in the House of Representatives could well shake things up in terms of cannabis policy. Congressman Earl Blumenauer is counting on it, as he has already prepared an action plan for cannabis legalization in late 2019, which he has forwarded to Democratic leaders. For him, the 116th Congress must be placed under the banner of cannabis reform.

Republican blockage of cannabis reform

Until now, both houses have been predominantly Republican, and despite support from some Republicans for cannabis reforms, none have ever come to fruition. Some 30 cannabis-related bills have been introduced in Congress to reform various aspects of federal cannabis policy: states' rights, access to medical cannabis for veterans, irrigation rights for hemp growers, access to banking services for cannabis businesses... Most have never been debated by House members due to filibustering by the Rules Committee.

This committee has the power to set the agenda of the House of Representatives and decide what will be discussed there. It is chaired by a staunch prohibitionist, Pete Sessions (no relation to Jeff Sessions, even if they share the same vision of things). Between 2014 and early 2016, a reformist movement was in vogue, including the passage of measures to prevent federal interference with medical cannabis and to improve veterans' access to the drug. However, in 2016, Republicans decided to block all attempts at reform.

Earl Blumenauer was behind a significant number of these bills swept aside by Republican leaders. «These are not controversial measures. They have bipartisan support. By blocking our amendments, Sessions is blocking the path of progress, common sense and the will of the people - Republican voters included,» the congressman raged.

The next legislative elections: hope for legalization?

In the Senate, only 35 seats out of 100 will be renewed, and of these, 24 are Democratic and only 9 Republican. It is therefore unlikely that the Democrats will take control of the upper house. However, the entire House of Representatives is up for re-election and, according to the polls, the Democrats have a very good chance of taking power. Compiling the polls for each state FiveThirtyEight estimates that the Democrats have a 5/6 chance of taking control of the House of Representatives.

Earl Blumenauer has prepared an action plan in the event that the House turns Democratic. Under his plan, the end of federal prohibition is scheduled for the end of 2019. In the first six months, hearings on cannabis are to be held in almost all House Committees (equivalent to parliamentary commissions in France) to discuss alternative policies. The Veterans Affairs Committee, for example, will discuss access to medical cannabis for veterans. The Financial Services Committee will discuss new legislation to enable the legal cannabis industry to access capital and banking services, and so on.

After these hearings, the Committees will have to get down to drafting legislation to remove federal impediments to cannabis legalization, with the aim of making them effective as early as August. By September, a law removing cannabis from the list of controlled substances would be passed, making it de facto legal and leaving it to the states to regulate.

The plan seems idyllic, however, and not everyone in the Democratic Party shares Earl Blumenauer's enthusiasm. The whip of the Democratic Minority (the term used to describe the person responsible for maintaining discipline within the party and ensuring that members vote in accordance with the party line), Steny Hoyer, explains that in the upper echelons of the party this discussion isn't not on the agenda.

The Democratic minority leader in the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, for her part stated that the legalization of cannabis would largely depend on the President's support. It's not clear where this support lies, as it's sometimes said that in favor of reforms , and at other times summons secret committees responsible for anti-cannabis propaganda or UN meetings to toughen war on drugs.