2023 will have seen the first operational legalization of cannabis in Europe. What about 2024?

Around the world, cannabis regulations are undergoing a period of significant change and regulatory evolution. The United States and Canada, two mature markets, have led the way, but attention is now turning to Europe.

Despite a fragmented and heavily regulated business environment, the continent is poised to open up to adult-use cannabis markets, with unique approaches depending on the specific European country.

The European Landscape of Legal Cannabis

According to the latest global report from Prohibition Partners: 4th Edition, the adult-use cannabis market in the United States reached $17 billion last year and is expected to exceed $33 billion this year, including medical sales. In Canada, adult-use cannabis sales are around $6 billion. However, attention is shifting to Europe, where countries are overcoming regulatory hurdles through innovative approaches.

In particular, some European countries are legalizing cannabis for adult use under the guise of scientific research. Switzerland, the Netherlands, and Germany are at the forefront of this approach, using pilot projects to assess the impact of legal commercial supply chains on society, public health, and youth protection.

Two models are emerging

The European cannabis industry is thus gradually evolving between two emerging models for the legalization of adult use. The first is based on «private nonprofit organizations,» also known as Cannabis Social Clubs, whose registered members grow cannabis and distribute the harvest among themselves. Malta and the upcoming German model exemplify this approach, which also allows citizens to grow cannabis at home. In this model, the industry plays a very limited role.

The second model involves «spatially limited and tightly controlled supply chains,» as being tested in Switzerland and the Netherlands, and as proposed by Germany in its second control phase. These time-limited supply chains are designed to explore effective and compliant ways to legally distribute cannabis.

Switzerland's Pioneering Trials

Switzerland has taken a step forward with the implementation of its pilot tests in the real world, marking the «first fully compliant adult-use supply chains in Europe.» Switzerland currently has four active trials, with an estimated 4,100 participants, a number expected to rise to 10,000 in the coming months. This initiative makes Switzerland a pioneer in establishing a legal market for adult use in Europe.

The Netherlands Joins the Movement

The Netherlands, which has long advocated for progressive drug policies, recently announced the launch of a pilot project for adult use. Coffee shops in the Breda and Tilburg regions can now legally source cannabis from licensed domestic producers. This is a significant change because, for the first time, a fully compliant supply chain—from seed to sale—will serve a major market for adult use in Europe.

A European dynamic

Germany, with its CanG bill, is moving toward legalizing adult use, albeit in a modified form. The The Czech Republic is also making great strides, considering the commercial cultivation of cannabis and the creation of cannabis clubs for adult use. The Portugal announced the formation of a group work on legalizing adult use, while the Belgian Deputy Prime Minister Calls for Reflection inspired by the progress made by neighboring countries.

Navigating the European cannabis landscape is no easy task. Compliance with the rules set by the European Commission, as in Germany, remains an obstacle. However, if it is successfully overcome, the European market for adult cannabis use could become a major industry. The year 2024 is therefore shaping up to be a pivotal year, with innovative models and pilot projects that will—or will not—shape the future. Although many challenges remain, the momentum is undeniable.