How much could France earn from medical cannabis?

There are issues that generally come after the rest. The legalization of medical cannabis is a topic that most often relates to patient needs and is not limited solely to public safety or funding possibilities.

If France were to decide to legalize medical cannabis nationwide, it would have the choice to either stick with imports, which are generally complex and expensive, or to encourage the emergence of a domestic industry. This domestic industry would not only engage the state's sovereignty but also allow access to substances for medical use and of medical quality at a much lower cost than on international markets.

This raises an important question: how much could medical cannabis generate for France?

There is a lack of references on this subject. One method could be to start with the number of patients, their average monthly needs, and from that deduce the number of cultivation, analysis, and processing sites needed for the production of this medical cannabis. Then, based on an average price, calculate the revenue generated by the sector. However, Tannée and Newsweed do not have the time or resources of a French polling institute.

Nearby, in Germany, the number of prescriptions issued for cannabis is known, around 400,000, without a breakdown by patient number. Estimates range from 100,000 to 150,000. The quantities imported by the country are also known, 20.6 tonnes, in addition to 2.6 tonnes produced locally. However, a portion of the imports is re-exported to other countries, thus not reflecting the quantities actually consumed. The amounts paid by health insurance are known, around 200 million euros for the year 2023, but without a direct link to the turnover of the German cannabis industry, which is still very small and largely an importer, Thus, without value creation other than a distributor margin on federal land.

Since the legal status of medical cannabis varies widely from state to state in the United States, it might be more appropriate to look to Canada. There, too, estimates vary. Some medical patients source their supply from the adult market, while others grow their own with cultivation permits that would make the French regional press green with envy: technically unlimited, and in practice, up to nearly 500 plants per patient in some English-speaking provinces. Self-reported surveys put the figure at around 75$CA spent per month by a Canadian patient, but the quantities reported by Statistics Canada are in the range of 2 grams of cannabis per day per patient, or about 300$CA per month. Although Statistics Canada provides a good account of cannabis sales and its impact in the country, the view is limited.

But, because there is a but, a Deloitte's 2022 report could shed some light on the matter. Overall, the Canadian industry sold 2.7 billion euros worth of cannabis in 2021, including non-medical sales. At that time, the medical market accounted for roughly 10% of the total market, or €270 million for 200,000 patients.

The cannabis sector’s contribution to the economy is even greater. While Deloitte estimates that cannabis sales since 2018 have totaled 7.6 billion euros, the sector’s contribution, taking into account direct, indirect, and induced economic activity, amounts to 30.3 billion euros and 151,000 jobs. That is, if we maintain the previous ratio of 101:3, 3 billion euros and 15,000 jobs for the medical cannabis industry alone in 4 years.

So obviously, these are just cross-products on a table. But since reasoned arguments haven't hit the mark, what about the financial interest?